A recent poll indicates a significant drop in Republican congressional support, with economic policies under former President Donald Trump emerging as a key factor. According to RMG Research, GOP approval has fallen to 44%, down from 51% in February 2025, while Democrats now lead 50%-45% in generic ballots1. The decline coincides with growing dissent over tariffs, NIH funding cuts, and executive overreach, as highlighted by bipartisan criticism and economic data.
Economic Distrust and Policy Fallout
Trump’s net approval on the economy stands at -12%, with Republicans trailing Democrats by 7% on inflation trust2. Tariffs on Canadian goods, including bourbon and peanut butter, have drawn backlash from GOP senators like Rand Paul (R-KY), who warned of a $1,200 annual cost to Kentuckians3. Meanwhile, proposed NIH funding cuts have alarmed lawmakers such as Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL), who cited risks to Alabama’s largest employer, UAB4.
Internal GOP Divisions and External Influences
Former Rep. David Jolly described the GOP as “listless,” with members deferring to Trump and Elon Musk amid policy disputes5. Musk’s influence has sparked bipartisan resistance, particularly after cuts to USAID’s Food for Peace program prompted rural Republicans like Rep. Tracey Mann (R-KS) to draft counter-legislation6. The Dow Jones’ 7% March 2025 drop, linked to tariff uncertainty, has further strained party unity7.
Democratic Strategy and Electoral Implications
CNN analyst Harry Enten notes Trump’s -22 net approval among independents, warning that GOP House members may face electoral consequences8. Strategist James Carville predicts a GOP implosion within 4–6 weeks, urging Democrats to capitalize on disarray ahead of the 2026 midterms9. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has accused Trump of freezing infrastructure grants illegally, adding to the political friction10.
Key Takeaways
- GOP support has eroded due to economic policies and internal divisions.
- Tariffs and NIH cuts have triggered bipartisan pushback.
- Democrats are positioning for gains amid Republican infighting.
The polling downturn reflects broader challenges for Republicans, with economic missteps and factional disputes undermining cohesion. As the 2026 midterms approach, the party’s ability to reconcile these issues will likely determine its electoral prospects.
References
- “Republican Support Collapses Under Donald Trump,” Newsweek, Apr. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.newsweek.com/republican-support-collapses-under-donald-trump-2062367
- “Trump Approval on Economy,” CNBC, Apr. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnbc.com/trump-approval-economy
- “Trump Tariffs Damage Kentucky Economy,” Courier-Journal, Feb. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/contributors/2025/02/12/trump-tariffs-damage-kentucky-economy-bourbon-mcconnell/78393549007/
- “Katie Britt Opposes NIH Cuts,” AL.com, Feb. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.al.com/news/2025/02/katie-britt-vows-to-work-with-rfk-jr-after-nih-funding-cuts-cause-concern-in-alabama.html
- “GOP Deferring to Trump and Musk,” New Republic, Mar. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://newrepublic.com/post/191356/republican-party-collapsed-donald-trump-elon-musk
- “Republicans Balk at Trump’s Spending Cuts,” NBC News, Mar. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pain-hits-home-republicans-balk-trumps-spending-cuts-tariffs-rcna191832
- “Dow Drops 7% Amid Tariff Uncertainty,” NBC News, Mar. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-economic-troubles-republicans-defensive-rcna196101
- “GOP Brand Could Collapse, Warns CNN’s Enten,” Mediaite, Apr. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.mediaite.com/podcasts/the-republican-brand-could-collapse-cnns-harry-enten-warns-trump-will-pay-steep-political-price-on-economy/
- “James Carville Predicts GOP Collapse,” Economic Times, Feb. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/james-carville-sounds-the-alarm-declares-gop-doom-and-predicts-donald-trumps-collapse-within-4-6-weeks/articleshow/118535010.cms
- “Patty Murray Accuses Trump of Illegal Freezes,” Yahoo News, Apr. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.yahoo.com/news/republican-admits-party-already-collapsed-181335391.html